In the Week 6 edition of “Monday Night Football,” the San Francisco 49ers host the Washington Commanders.
San Francisco is riding high atop the NFC West with a 5-0 record, after defeating the defending Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks in a barnburner last week. The Niners battled injuries on both sides of the ball all season, but remained undefeated. They can create a three game lead in the division with a victory on Monday night.
Washington is coming off an absolute disaster last Sunday against the New York Giants, where the Commanders had a chance to kick a field goal to win the game at the end of overtime, but messed up clock management as badly as any team you’ll see. The Commies are just 1-3-1 entering this game, and they’re looking to avoid falling further into the basement in the NFC East.
Will the Niners’ roll continue, or will the Commanders pull off the upset? We will find out soon enough. Before we break down the match, here’s a look at how you can watch the game.
Where to watch live 49ers vs. Commanders
When the Commanders have the ball
Jayden Daniels wasn’t the worse for wear last week in his return from another dislocated elbow. He completed 17 of 25 passes for 199 yards, while also rushing nine times for 103 yards and two touchdowns. If he and the entire offense don’t completely fart their brains at the end of overtime, it will be a hugely encouraging performance for Washington’s rest of the season outlook.
While Daniels has been efficient against the run in his three starts, Washington’s running backs have been woefully inefficient on the ground. Jacory Croskey-Merritt (who was ruled out for this game after not practicing all week), Rachaad White, Austin Ekeler and the recently released Kaytron Allen combined to average just 3.7 yards per carry. The offensive line created little push up front, with backs collectively gaining just 0.95 yards before contact per carry, according to Tru Media, and the backs themselves had the second-lowest rate of broken tackles in all of football.
The 49ers, meanwhile, gave up just 3.7 yards per rush to enemy running backs, with good tackling being the primary means of limiting yardage. Backs gained 1.47 yards per carry before contact (an above average mark), but only 2.22 yards after contact thanks to the lowest broken-tackle rate in the league. As a result, San Francisco has given up just two explosive runs all season, according to Tru Media, the fewest in the NFL.
San Francisco is also typically strong against the pass, ranking 10th in opponents’ EPA per dropback and 5th in opponents’ success rate. The 49ers have allowed quarterbacks to complete just 64.4% of their passes for an average of 6.1 yards per attempt, with five touchdowns and three interceptions in five games.
It’s hard to know what to make of Washington’s passing game because it hasn’t been an absolute strength for most of the season. Daniels missed two-and-a-half games. Chig Okonwko missed both. Terry McLaurin and Stefon Diggs missed one and saw their snaps limited in the other. The Daniels-McLaurin-Diggs trio has shared the field for just 57 plays so far this season, according to Tru Media. Daniels was just 15 of 30 for 129 yards on those plays, but he threw for three scores and scrambled for 62 yards.
Daniels should, in theory, find at least a few clean pockets with the 49ers playing again without Nick Bosa, but Washington’s offensive line has produced pressure on over 38% of dropbacks so far, so the Niners have a chance to get into Daniels’ lap and force him into difficult throws and mistakes. With the generally sticky coverage San Francisco’s corners have played in so far this season, sledding could be difficult for Washington in the passing game on Monday night.
When the 49ers have the ball
San Francisco was the league’s fourth-most efficient offense by EPA per game, according to Tru Media, ranked second in passing and 14th in running. Brock Purdy is playing at as high a level as any quarterback in football, completing 69% of his passes for an average of 8.4 yards per attempt with a league-high 13 touchdown passes and just two interceptions. Purdy also has a 57.9% passing success rate, which ranks as the best in the league.
Purdy was able to do that despite bleeding wide receivers all season. Ricky Pearsall was lost for the year in training camp. Christian Kirk (listed as questionable for this week) has yet to make his 49er debut. De’Zhaun Stribling was injured in Week 1. Demarcus Robinson went down in Week 2. Deebo Samuel and Jacob Cowing were knocked out in last week’s win over the Seahawks. Mike Evans is playing through a nagging rib injury. (He’s also questionable for Monday night.) George Kittle spent the first two weeks ramping up to a full workload after an Achilles tear last season. And yet, here are the 49ers.
Meanwhile, Washington is one of the league’s most pass-friendly defenses. Every team the Commanders have faced has thrown for at least 257 net yards. Four of the five teams went over 300 and two of them went over 400. The Commanders allowed opponents to complete 65.2% of passes for an average of 7.1 yards per attempt, with 14 touchdowns and just three interceptions. The 103.9 passer rating against the Commanders so far is the sixth-worst mark in the league. It’s easy to see San Francisco finding success through the air as long as Evans suits up for the game.
Christian McCaffrey is sharing the workload in the run game this season more than in years past, with 61 carries for 286 yards against Kaelon Black’s 37 carries for 136 yards. McCaffrey’s 4.7 yards-per-carry average is better than he’s posted the past two years (4.0 and 3.9), and his rushing success rate of 45.9% is seventh-best among 48 qualifying running backs. That figure is the second-best mark of his career, behind only the 2023 season, in which he led the NFL in rushing yards.
The Commanders have been really stingy against the run this year, allowing just 3.9 yards per carry, with opposing backs limited to 0.69 yards per attempt before contact by the defensive front. Washington having similar success stopping the run here is important because it could make the 49ers one-dimensional, but the Commanders’ pass-funnel defense also plays right into San Francisco’s hands given how good the 49ers’ passing game has been so far this year. Purdy and Co. must eat, even if McCaffrey doesn’t.
Prediction
I picked against the 49ers last week and immediately regretted it after seeing how their offense struggled against Seattle’s stingy defense. Needless to say, Washington’s defense was not of the same quality. I know the 49ers are still bleeding wide receivers, but as long as Brock Purdy, Mike Evans, George Kittle and Christian McCaffrey are healthy and Kyle Shanahan is calling the plays, they can move the ball well. And I don’t trust the Commanders to do enough to keep up with their explosive offense. Pick: 49ers 27, Commanders 16