To turn the page from Week 8 to Week 9, I spent some time earlier this week watching the latest Miami Dolphins game to see what’s in store for the Detroit Lions.
Here are my five Lions vs. Dolphins thoughts after watching Miami’s 24-19 loss to the New England Patriots.
Note: It is worth mentioning that it was a rainy day in Miami, especially at the start and end of the game.
Malik Willis held the ball long
There could be many reasons for this, but Willis held the ball too long in the pocket. Per NFL Pro, Willis’ 3.05 seconds average throw is third-longest in the league. Is Willis taking too long to go through his progressions, is he too hesitant to trust his eyes, or is his young receiving corps just not opening up? It’s hard to tell from my position, but this is definitely a chance for the Lions to come home against Willis.
So far, Willis has 21 sacks—seventh most in the NFL—and the Dolphins have the second-highest sack rate in the NFL (10.3%).
The Patriots caught Willis five times in the first half, before pulling back a bit in the second.
This could be a big game by Tyleik Williams
Miami had a very hard time stopping Patriots nose tackle Cory Durden in this game. He set career highs in pressures (three), quarterback hits (three), and sacks (1.5). Before this game, Durden had never recorded a sack and had only two quarterback hits since starting his NFL career, coincidentally in Detroit, in 2023.
Miami is particularly weak on the right side of the line, where second-year right guard Jonah Savaiinaea is the 66th (out of 75) PFF-graded guard (47.9), and right tackle Austin Jackson is the lowest-graded tackle in football (44.6).
Williams is off to a strong start to his second season, remaining a force in the run game (the Dolphins rank 21st in EPA/rush, 24th in success rate) while growing as a pass rusher. Obviously, keep an eye on Alim McNeill as well, who is currently only behind Broncos defensive tackle Zach Allen in PFF pressures from interior defenders (31).
The Lions’ running game must succeed
Last week, the Lions found success pounding the rock in the middle of the Vikings’ defense. That should be the game plan again against the Dolphins. Rhamondre Stevenson ran for 82 yards on 19 carries (4.3 YPC), as the Patriots produced a 45.2% success rate on the ground—ninth-highest among all Week 8 performances.
For the year, Miami ranks 21st in EPA/hurries allowed and 30th in success rate (43.9%).
So they don’t provide a ton of explosive plays on the ground, but you can definitely crush them. I wouldn’t be surprised to see another solid workload from Sione Vaki.
But Miami has some dudes on defense
Miami’s defense as a whole likely won’t be up for the task against the Lions’ high-flying offense. The Dolphins rank 24th in points per game allowed (25.9) and 25th in yards per game allowed.
However, there are some players who play well and have the ability to change games. The first is edge rusher Josh Uche. While Uche has only two sacks this year (one against the Patriots), he has produced PFF’s ninth-highest defensive grade among edge defenders (76.0).
At the next level, rookie linebacker Jacob Rodriguez flashed against the Patriots. He had a teach-tape punchout and was second on the team with eight tackles. His rookie season had some ups and downs, but don’t be surprised if he makes a big play against the Lions.
The game was not as close as the score
While the Dolphins only had five turnovers and held a 10-point halftime lead, this game didn’t feel like a real competitive game between the teams.
For one, the Patriots made a ton of mistakes in the first half. They fumbled inside their own red zone, missed a 40-yard field goal, and had a ton of untimely penalties (seven in total). In the second half, the Patriots dropped an easy interception, and they had a game-clinching pick erased by an away-from-the-play offsides penalty.
And the Dolphins only came close thanks to a prevent-defense touchdown just two minutes in, as a Patriots defender fell for an easy 35-yard touchdown.
Per game, the Patriots produced more yards per play (5.3 vs. 4.5), and had a higher success rate (49.1% vs. 43.8%). If you remove the garbage time statistics, the difference in success rate is even greater (52.9% vs. 39.3%).
If the Lions can avoid making mistakes of their own, they should win comfortably, despite the fact that Miami has held each of their last four games to within a touchdown.