In fantasy football, you have to turn around to move forward. Fantasy points are the goal, but how a player gets there is the key. Analyst Joel Smyth breaks down the 8 numbers to know from Week 9 to win your match in Week 10 and beyond.
31%
Targets per route for Jordyn Tyson. The long-awaited debut for the top-10 pick didn’t come with a surprising box score, but it did offer some hope. The rookie was on a very limited snap count, running just 16 routes, but was targeted five times, second most on the team to Chris Olave. Devaughn Vele, the Saints WR2 to start the season, was targeted on just four of 44 routes. The
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After starting the day with a fumble, Tyson turned it around with three receptions in the fourth quarter as New Orleans came back to tie the game and send it into overtime. Although he was limited, when Tyson was used, it was in a role that could be useful in the future. In an offense that provides plenty of completions with Tyler Shough ranking third highest among QBs, Tyson was used in the slot and in transition, much the same as Vele, who averaged 12.3 PPG on the week. Olave will be No. 1, but Tyson will still get enough volume to show why he’s a top-10 NFL Draft selection.
80.8%
In RB touches went to Jonah Coleman, the second most by a Broncos RB since Sean Payton took over in 2023. Payton has historically had a committee at RB, whether it was a trio in Denver or Alvin Kamara with Mark Ingram back in New Orleans. They work without being a workhorse. So when a RB has a clear majority in a backfield dominated by Payton, it leads to a huge fantasy impact. When a rookie does it, it’s even more impressive.
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Coleman has been getting everything in Denver since the second quarter of Week 8: receiving, red-zone work and carries in general. RJ Harvey experienced the same success last season after an injury to JK Dobbins, posting prime-time RB1 numbers as the lead back, including a game over 80.8%. Harvey will eventually return, but Coleman looks to be the clear No. 1 going forward either way, and should be the primary red-zone back, though the work is more distributed going forward. Right now, Coleman is a short-term RB1 in fantasy with the potential to stick around based on how much Harvey is involved in the return.
64.3%
Of NYJ RB touches went to Breece Hall on his return; however, that was his lowest score this season. It was a lose-lose in New York. Braelon Allen managers go from 17 PPG scoring in half PPR leagues to best, while Hall managers no more bellcow. It’s the first game back, but it’s an especially bad sign for Hall that Allen had 2x as many routes Sunday, as Hall’s receiving was a major reason for his previous fantasy ceiling. A fumble didn’t help Allen’s case this week, but it didn’t seem to affect his playing time the rest of the game. If Hall doesn’t have more upside in Week 10, his value in the rest of the season is greatly limited by Allen’s presence in this offense.
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16.2%
Target share for Nico Collins since Week 5. Fewer reasons are acceptable for Collins’ refusal. Yes, he scored over 15 PPR points this week, but it turned out to be just 17% of Houston’s receiving points as CJ Stroud threw for 384 yards and five touchdowns. His 10.8% target share in Week 9 is even more concerning considering the absence of Jaylin Noel, the second WR to go down for the season for the Texans, joining Jayden Higgins. Collins’ two biggest threats in the preseason on the target side are gone, and he hasn’t been able to separate from the other wideouts in volume. With how well Stroud has been playing, his fantasy value remains high, with greater risk for floor weeks as we saw in Week 8.
1.4
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Touchdowns per game for the Colts since Week 5, just above the Chargers. First-round fantasy pick Jonathan Taylor is struggling in all aspects. The volume is down, the efficiency is down and the team is on a five game losing streak with a crumbling offense. 2025 Taylor is nowhere to be found. After originally having an elite 85% of the Colts’ RB touches to start the season, Taylor’s share has dropped to 63% over the past three weeks, an average rate at best.
With the offensive line down and the inability to sustain drives, Taylor has gone downhill fast with no signs of rebounding if he stays in Indy. Although the offense was built around him in the red zone, his fantasy production dropped from RB2 overall in the red zone in 2025 to 16th in 2026. With no signs of life for the Colts, it will be difficult for Taylor to be more than an average fantasy RB2. The
21.0
Touches per game this season for Bucky Irving, fifth most RBs. The only four above him are all top five fantasy RBs on the season. After a 24-touch night in Chicago, Irving extended his streak of 20+ touch games to five, as the Buccaneers’ running back became the star and main focus of the offense. He handled the ball on 58.4% of his snaps with Baker Mayfield at QB, mostly in the run game, but also a lot as a receiver, with Mayfield targeting him on 27% of his routes. Kenny Gainwell might give him some rest, but when Irving is on the field, he’s on the field for a reason. Irving’s 58% was the second-highest mark behind only Derrick Henry, who was barely involved in the passing game. And now that both Bucky and the Tampa Bay offensive line are healthy this season, the rushing offense looks unstoppable, even against a worthy rushing defense like the Bears.
38.3%
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Completions per dropback for Joe Milton in his first start this season. The Eagles’ offense needed a spark, and they tried in Week 9 with a change at QB. Unfortunately for Makai Lemon and Dallas Goedert, the floor looks dangerously low. On 47 dropbacks, Milton completed just 18 passes, enough to get Lemon and Goedert into double digits, but failed to get Saquon Barkley a single reception or Darius Cooper more than a pair of his eight targets. Barkley’s day was saved by a goal-line touchdown, but with Milton at QB, the receiving value and potential of the touchdown dropped significantly. The Eagles RB will need a big increase in volume to be trusted in this offense, as Elijah Mitchell has moved away from Barkley enough, lowering his fantasy floor.
2.7
The average depth of pass attempt for Patrick Mahomes on Sunday. That lowered his second-lowest ranking to last, behind Bo Nix, as the Chiefs offense stuck to their grind-it-out mentality. Fantasy quarterback success often comes down to potential ceiling. Plenty of NFL quarterbacks can get you 17 fantasy points any given week, but who gets 25 or more?
Since Week 3, Mahomes has only scored more than 17 on one of six attempts. The offense has no weapons downfield, especially without Tyquan Thornton, forcing Mahomes and the offense into a condensed passing attack. Their defense is great, they run the ball well and when Mahomes gets passing scores, it’s mostly just to reach his fantasy floor. The rush for Mahomes is coming off an ACL tear, and it hasn’t paid off with any aggressive passing. Unless there’s a last-minute move before the deadline, I wouldn’t expect a major change in offensive identity that would propel Mahomes from a great superflex QB to a great option in 1QB leagues.