Trying to figure out what’s “real” and what’s not is the hardest thing to do in the NFL, especially early in the season. Was Bryce Young’s great first two weeks “real,” or is now, after a bad game against the Browns, the “real” Bryce Young we’ve seen for most of his career?
There’s a lot of convoluting, too. Different matchups, different schemes, different arrangements, different luck and most of all, different people. These players are not robots. They have good days. They have a bad day. The one who will be in a good situation. They are put in a bad situation. One can only say that Young’s struggles are indicative of who he is as a player, or they can listen to Darren Waller a lot … and still chuck it to “those are the types of things that happen early in the season.”
Trying to assess what is true and what is not about the strengths and weaknesses of top teams is also difficult, but not impossible. As such, we’re taking a look at the six teams with the shortest Super Bowl odds — the “contenders” if you will, though certainly not an exhaustive list — and hope to identify their biggest weaknesses.
Are they true? Are they illusions? The rest of the year will tell, but for now, it’s keeping the upper level at night.
(Winnings via DraftKings)
Rams: Injuries that expose deep depths
The good thing about stars is that they are stars. The bad thing about stars is that they cost a lot, and so filling the rest of the roster behind them becomes a challenge. Right now, the Rams are dealing with injuries to reigning Defensive Player of the Year Myles Garrett, superstar wide receiver Puka Nacua and key offseason addition Jaylen Watson.
And behind them, there is a lack of depth. Let’s look at all three positions.
- Fast pass: The Rams are currently 29th in sack rate, an unthinkable number considering they were 10th last year and they traded Jared Verse (a very good player) for Garrett (an all-time). But Garrett barely played, meaning behind Kobie Turner and Byron Young, there are plenty of inexperienced players getting big roles. Turner’s pressure rate dropped from 12.4% last year to 7.6% this year. The good news is that the Rams are still generating pressure, hence the sacks must follow
- Wide receiver: Without Nacua, this is the Davante Adams show. The Rams only dressed four wide receivers, compared to five tight ends. “SNF” play-by-play guy Mike Tirico said he can’t remember a time when he had more tight ends than wide receivers on his call sheet. And even though Konata Mumpfield had a good game, including a long touchdown, you could see the element missing. Nacua unlocked almost everything for Sean McVay’s offense. Those three tight looks are useful — the Rams led the NFL in those looks last year — but they don’t provide the dynamism that Nacua does. No one, really. Oh yeah, and the most explosive tight end, Terrance Ferguson, was hurt on Sunday.
- Cornerback: With Watson gone, the Rams have turned to Josh Wallace and Emmanuel Forbes Jr. Wallace was called for the controversial (aka wrong) pass interference against Pat Bryant that saved the game for the Broncos, and Forbes was picked off.
It’s hard to be too worried about the Rams. If they were 2-1 with a dominant win over the Giants and a win over the Broncos and their only loss came after a 16-hour flight to Australia, these concerns would be much less. But the margins are very, very small in the NFL.
Bills: Turnovers
The Bills are 3-0 and look like a powerhouse. The offense hums when it doesn’t turn the ball over, and the defense gets star jumps from Greg Rousseau and Deone Walker.
But those pesky, pesky turnovers. The Bills had five(!) in a win over the Chargers, a game they would have lost against better teams.
It’s been the simple case against the Bills for a while: Josh Allen will still have these error-prone games. Consider the Bills’ playoff loss last year: Allen threw two interceptions (one very controversial) and lost two fumbles, including one of the worst you’ll ever see. James Cook also lost his nerve. (He also lost on a Sunday). Those five turnovers turned into 16 Denver points in a 33-30 win over the Broncos.
Turnovers happen, but they can’t snowball, as they often do in Buffalo. The Bills have had eight games (including the playoffs) with multiple turnovers since the start of last season. They made it to Week 3. They couldn’t avoid it.
49ers: Injuries
The 49ers are 3-0, but the injury list seems to be growing by the day. Just Sunday, Mike Evans (ribs), Trent Williams (shoulder stinger) and Dre Greenlaw (quad) left early. That comes days after the 49ers announced that Nick Bosa (calf) will be out for several weeks. Other injuries include wide receivers Ricky Pearsall, De’Zhaun Stribling, Demarcus Robinson and Christian Kirk all on IR. Defensive linemen CJ West and Alfred Collins are both on IR. In fact, the 49ers didn’t even put Bosa on IR because they were running out of IR spots.
As long as Kyle Shanahan and Brock Purdy, Christian McCaffrey and Fred Warner are healthy, the 49ers can stay afloat. There may not be a team better at this than the 49ers. But at some point, the team’s weakness can be exposed against better competition.
Ravens: Lack of defensive playmaking
The Ravens defense is good. It’s not great (at least not yet). And when it comes to the postseason, a team needs a good defense or one that makes game-changing plays, and so far, the Ravens haven’t been consistent.
Baltimore is 21st in defensive EPA per play, though 12th in defensive success rate, showing they’ve been decent down-to-down but not in big situations. A good example of this came in the fourth quarter of Week 2, when the Saints went three for five on third down and converted both fourth downs when they failed on third down.
Since forcing two turnovers in Week 1, the Ravens have forced just one over the past two weeks. They are 23rd in sack rate. This wouldn’t be such a big issue if it weren’t deja vu: The Ravens have forced two turnovers in eight postseason games since Lamar Jackson became the starter in 2019. The offense has to make a mistake or two and knows the defense will recover. The last time a defense had multiple takeaways in a playoff game was in the 2014 season.
The good news? Jesse Minter has the goods, and as the Ravens continue to get comfortable with his scheme, more game-changing plays should happen.
Seahawks: Run game
I wrote it in my Week 3 overreaction: The Seahawks losing Super Bowl MVP Kenneth Walker III in free agency was the worst free agency miss of the offseason.
Seattle is currently…
- 31st in rushing EPA
- 29th in percentage of rushes that went for 0 or negative yards
- 23rd in rushing success rate
In Week 3, Jadarian Price lost a crucial fumble, and Seattle totaled just 44 yards on 18 carries. Seattle sorely misses Walker’s explosiveness (the best thing he brought to the Chiefs), and there’s no easy way to get that back, even with Zach Charbonnet back.
Chiefs: Playmaking wide receiver
It’s hard to pick one here. The Chiefs have been amazing. But simply looking at the roster, the Chiefs lack outside wide receivers. So far this season, Travis Kelce leads the Chiefs with 14 catches, followed by Rashee Rice with 13 and Walker with 11. Xavier Worthy has 10 (with two drops), and Tyquan Thornton has six.
Rice has started playing outside — his 32.5% slot rate is on pace to be the lowest of his career — but it’s not a perfect fit. Currently, when the Chiefs throw to outside receivers, they …
- 21st in yards per attempt
- 24th in yards per completion
- 31st in EPA per dropback
This might not really be a concern considering how good Walker is on the ground and how good Kelce is through the air. But we’ll see a situation down the road where the lack of a go-to outside receiver will be an issue.