No position in fantasy depends on weekly matchups more than defense.
If you’ve waited to draft a fantasy defense/special teams, as our Redraft Strategy Playbook recommends, the best move is to stream the position and chase matchups.
Let’s break down how DST scoring works and identify the best Week 1 streaming targets.
Break down the Basics of DST Scoring
Most fantasy football leagues break down team defenses into the following categories:
- Points are allowed
- sacks
- Blockages
- Make fumble recoveries
- TDs
Since TDs are worth 6 points, plus punt returns, they make the biggest weekly swing. If your DST finds the end zone, you’ll almost certainly have a top-10 week.
The problem: Those scoring plays are unpredictable.
Instead, points allowed gives us the most predictive signal for DST fantasy scoring. Generally, target defenses that are expected to allow the fewest points in a given week in an attempt to chase the least predictable big plays.
That often means simply targeting defenses facing the NFL’s worst offenses.
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Why Turnovers and Sacks Are Unreliable
TDs are not the only volatile category. INT leaders rarely repeat each year. Fumble recoveries are less predictable. And even sack totals fluctuate.
We still want defensive playmakers, especially stud pass rushers and DBs who get their hands on the ball.
But as far as DST scoring categories go, we want to chase the points allowed.
The Real Edge: Exploiting Matchups
Don’t lock yourself into one defense all season. DST scoring is volatile, and so are the weekly opponents.
Some defenses will be better than others at limiting points. But if one of them draws the Eagles or Chiefs, you’ll probably want a different DST that week.
Embrace the stream and come back here weekly to find the best options.
Week 4 Defenses Worth Streaming
Packers (at Buccaneers)
Listed: 32%
The Packers haven’t played well on defense so far this season. They rank 26th in defensive DVOA after giving up 35 points to the Falcons and 39 points to the Vikings (sandwiching a 17-point performance by the Jets).
This is certainly not a D you would target under normal circumstances (at least until Micah Parsons returns from the PUP list). But Baker Mayfield’s dislocated right thumb changed this matchup.
The Bucs offense has struggled, ranking 27th in yards and 23rd in offensive points per game (including an INT return for a TD on defense). Now will start undrafted rookie QB Jalon Daniels, who has thrown 19 INTs in his last two years at Kansas. Daniels completed just 59.6% of his passes during that span, facing weaker defenses than he’ll see in the NFL.
The Packers are 3.5-point favorites. If they jump out to an early lead, it will only increase the pressure on Daniels and potentially increase the passing volume. That can lead to sacks and turnovers, making them a useful defense for this week alone.
Jets (at Bears)
Listed: 2%
The Jets defense performed admirably in the first two weeks of the season, holding the Titans and Packers to under 200 total yards each before running into the Lions.
Week 4 will bring the Bears, likely led by Tyson Bagent, who hasn’t started a game since 2023. (He probably would have started Week 3 if not for a concussion that kept Bagent out of practice all week.)
He went 5-of-9 for 54 yards filling in for Caleb Williams against the Vikings in Week 2 and was nothing short of impressive. In 2023, Bagent went 2-2 as a starter. In his five games played, he completed 94 of 143 passes for 859 yards and 3 TDs with 6 INTs. Bagent also fumbled the ball three times. He was turnover prone when he started, and that bodes well for the Jets Defense in this matchup.
The Jets haven’t had an INT since January 5, 2025, but this might be their best chance to end that drought.
The Jets pass rush is also impressive. They are tied for seventh in sacks with eight so far this season. The pass rush was better on film, especially with rookie Edge David Bailey often commanding double teams from matchups on offense.
Cardinals (at Giants)
Listed: 1%
The Cardinals haven’t played well on defense, giving up 31+ points against the Seahawks and 49ers in the last two weeks. This one is about the opposite of facing Jameis Winston.
He took 3 sacks against the Titans last week, despite ranking 28th in pressure rate, according to Pro Football Focus. But the real upside to facing Winston is the turnovers.
Since 2022, Winston has thrown 23 INT vs. 21 TD passes. Last time he spent a full year starting, Winston famously led the NFL with 30 INTs for the 2019 Bucs. He leads all active QBs with 1.05 career INTs per game.
This year’s Giants have also struggled to score over the past two weeks. They managed just four FGs in a 12-7 win last week, even in rainy and windy conditions. The team also failed to reach the end zone last week in LA
The Cardinals are currently favored by 1.5 points, despite being on the road. They can certainly hold the Giants to a low total with a few sacks in this game.