Welcome to Week 5’s Matchups That Matchups.
This article gives you a peek into the process behind our weekly projections and rankings. Below are the key metrics we use to set those numbers, so you can make sharper start/seat calls each week.
With four weeks in the books, we already have a good idea of what these offenses and defenses will look like this season. It’s time to start leaning into matchup data.
When you’re ready to set your lineup, hit the Week 5 Rankings and your Team Dashboard page for customized starting/seating advice.
Good luck in Week 5!
Maximum Game Total
1. Bills at Rams (55.0)
2. Lions and Cardinals (54.5)
3. Buccaneers and Cowboys (48.5)
4. Bears and Packers (46.0)
t-5. Raiders at Patriots (45.5)
t-5. 49ers at Seahawks (45.5)
Minimum Game Total
t-9. Bengals and Dolphins (42.5)
t-9. Vikings and Saints (42.5)
t-9. Giants and Commanders (42.5)
t-9. Broncos at Chargers (42.5)
13. Eagles vs. Jaguars (41.5)
14. Browns and Jets (40.0)
15. Texans and Titans (38.5)
Expected points
We can use the Vegas lines to calculate how many points each team is expected to score this week.
Maximum Expected Score
1. Lions (30.0)
2. Rams (29.0)
3. Cowboys (28.5)
4. Bills (26.0)
t-5. Jaguars (24.5)
t-5. Bengals (24.5)
t-5. Patriots (24.5)
t-5. Cardinals (24.5)
Minimum Expected Score
t-25. Giants (19.5)
t-25. Chargers (19.5)
27. Browns (19.25)
28. Dolphins (18.0)
29. Eagles (17.0)
30. Titans (15.5)
Expected Plays
The chart below shows how many plays we project each team will run compared to the league average for the week. More plays = more opportunities for fantasy points.
Most Anticipated Plays
1. Lions (64.1)
2. Bears (64.0)
3. Rams (63.9)
4. Saints (63.4)
5. Cowboys (63.3)
6. Cardinals (63.2)
Least Expected Play
25. Ravens (60.9)
26. Browns (60.8)
27. Buccaneers (60.1)
28. Eagles (60.0)
29. Titans (58.8)
30. Dolphins (58.7)
Pace Matchups
The chart below shows how each game stacks up in terms of pace compared to the league average for the week. Speed is calculated by averaging the seconds per snap from both teams in each game. Faster games usually produce more plays, which means more fantasy points.
Fastest Game (Average seconds per snap)
1. Texans at Titans (27.1 seconds)
2. Bills at Rams (27.7 seconds)
3. Lions at Cardinals (28.1 seconds)
4. Packers and Bears (28.3 seconds)
Slowest Games (Average seconds per snap)
12. Giants and Commanders (30.6 seconds)
13. Eagles and Jaguars (31.5 seconds)
t-14. Browns at Jets (31.5 seconds)
t-14. Ravens at Falcons (31.5 seconds)
Time Concerns
Back on Sunday morning.
quarterback
Pass Defense Power Rankings
Here’s a look at how each team fared in pass defense DVOA, Pro Football Focus coverage grade, PFF pass rush grade, and EPA allowed per pass through 4 weeks. Teams are ranked by “Pass Defense Power,” which is the average of those 4 metrics.
Week 5 Passing Matchups
This chart plots each team’s Pass Offense Power versus their opponent’s Pass Defense Power. The teams in the lower right quadrant are in the smash spot.
Matchup Upgrades and Downgrades Adjusted-Fantasy-Points Upgrades and Downgrades
The best and worst Week 5 matchups according to our 2026 adjusted fantasy points allowed.
5 Best QB Matchups
1. Jameis Winston on Commanders (+60.8%)
2. Matthew Stafford vs. Bills (+57.9%)
3. Jalon Daniels and Cowboys (+47.9%)
4. Tyson Bagent to the Packers (+44.7%)
5. Jacoby Brissett vs. Lions (+40.2%)
5 Worst QB Matchups
26. Bo Nix on Chargers (-21.7%)
27. Brock Purdy and Seahawks (-24.2%)
28. Deshaun Watson on the Jets (-31.3%)
29. Tyler Shough vs. Vikings (-33.7%)
30. Kirk Cousins and Patriots (-35.2%)
Running Back
Run the Defense Power Rankings
Here’s a look at how each team fared in run defense DVOA, Pro Football Focus run defense grade, and EPA allowed per rush through 4 weeks. Teams are ranked by “Run Defense Power,” which is an average of those 3 metrics.
Week 5 Rushing Matchup
This chart depicts each team’s Run Offense Power compared to their opponent’s Run Defense Power. The teams in the lower right quadrant are in the smash spot.
Matchup Upgrades and Downgrades Adjusted-Fantasy-Points Upgrades and Downgrades
The best and worst Week 5 matchups according to our 2026 adjusted fantasy points allowed.
5 Best RB Matchups
1. Bears over Packers (+36.8%)
2. Browns and Jets (+31.9%)
3. Bengals and Dolphins (+27.7%)
4. Rams vs. Bills (+27.1%)
5. Seahawks vs. 49ers (+21.5%)
5 Worst RB Matchups
26. Titans vs. Texans (-22.2%)
27. Giants and Commanders (-24.6%)
28. Bills at Rams (-26.0%)
29. Saints vs. Vikings (-32.0%)
30. Lions at Cardinals (-34.8%)
Wide Receiver
Matchup Upgrades and Downgrades Adjusted-Fantasy-Points Upgrades and Downgrades
The best and worst Week 5 matchups according to our 2026 adjusted fantasy points allowed.
5 Best WR Matchups
1. Rams vs. Bills (+41.0%)
2. Bears over Packers (+38.1%)
3. Lions at Cardinals (+33.3%)
4. Cardinals vs. Lions (+31.1%)
5. Eagles and Jaguars (+28.0%)
5 Worst WR Matchups
26. Packers vs. Bears (-27.0%)
27. Browns and Jets (-27.5%)
28. Bengals and Dolphins (-27.8%)
29. Cowboys vs. Buccaneers (-30.9%)
30. 49ers at Seahawks (-33.0%)
WR/CB Matchup Upgrade
Lions WR Amon-Ra St. Brown against Cardinals CB Garrett Williams
Vikings WRs Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison vs. Saints CBs Kool-Aid McKinstry, Quincy Riley, and Jonas Sanker
Giants WRs Malik Nabers, Malachi Fields, and Darnell Mooney vs. Commanders CBs Amik Robertson, Rasul Douglas, and Mike Sainristil
Cardinals WRs Michael Wilson, Marvin Harrison Jr., and Kendrick Bourne vs. Lions CBs DJ Reed, Ennis Rakestraw, and Roger McCreary
Bears WRs Luther Burden, Rome Odunze, and Kalif Raymond vs. Packers CBs Keisean Nixon, Brandon Cisse, and Javon Bullard
Colts WR Josh Downs vs. Steelers CB Jalen Ramsey
Buccaneers WRs Emeka Egbuka and Chris Godwin compared to Cowboys CBs DaRon Bland and Reddy Steward
WR/CB Matchup Downgrades
Saints WRs Chris Olave and Devaughn Vele vs. Vikings CBs Isaiah Rodgers, James Pierre, and Byron Murphy
Falcons WR Drake London vs. Ravens CBs Nate Wiggins and Chidobe Awuzie
49ers WRs Mike Evans and Deebo Samuel vs. Seahawks CBs Josh Jobe, Nehemiah Pritchett, and Devon Witherspoon
Titans WRs Carnell Tate and Wan’Dale Robinson vs. Texans CBs Derek Stingley, Kamari Lassiter, and Jalen Pitre
Dolphins WRs Malik Washington and Chris Bell vs. Bengals CBs DJ Turner, Daxton Hill, and Jalen Davis
Eagles WRs Dontayvion Wicks, Makai Lemon, and Darius Cooper against Jaguars CBs Travis Hunter, Jarrian Jones, and Jourdan Lewis
Tight End
Matchup Upgrades and Downgrades Adjusted-Fantasy-Points Upgrades and Downgrades
The best and worst Week 5 matchups according to our 2026 adjusted fantasy points allowed.
5 Best TE Matchups
1. Giants and Commanders (+130.8%)
2. Cardinals vs. Lions (+91.9%)
3. Lions at Cardinals (+66.0%)
4. Dolphins vs. Bengals (+56.3%)
5. Jets vs. Browns (+39.2%)
5 Worst TE Matchups
26. Seahawks vs. 49ers (-42.7%)
27. Broncos at Chargers (-52.9%)
28. Bills and Rams (56.2%)
29. Packers vs. Bears (-59.6%)
30. Raiders and Patriots (-61.4%)
Defense/Special Teams
Matchup Upgrades and Downgrades Adjusted-Fantasy-Points Upgrades and Downgrades
The best and worst Week 5 matchups according to our 2026 adjusted fantasy points allowed.
5 Best DST Matchups
1. Commanders vs. Giants (+200.0%)
2. Ravens and Falcons (+148.9%)
3. Cowboys vs. Buccaneers (+116.2%)
4. Bills at Rams (+78.9%)
5. Colts and Steelers (+78.1%)
5 Worst DST Matchups
26. Rams vs. Bills (-38.4%)
27. Eagles and Jaguars (-67.7%)
28. Cardinals vs. Lions (-69.6%)
29. Buccaneers at Cowboys (-80.0%)
30. Seahawks vs. 49ers (-116.2%)
Kicker
Matchup Upgrades and Downgrades Adjusted-Fantasy-Points Upgrades and Downgrades
The best and worst Week 5 matchups according to our 2026 adjusted fantasy points allowed.
5 Best K Matchups
1. Brandon Aubrey vs. Buccaneers (+54.3%)
2. Ka’imi Fairbairn and Titans (+46.6%)
3. Joey Slye vs. Texans (+38.3%)
4. Dominic Zvada in Commanders (+32.0%)
5. Riley Patterson vs. Bengals (+31.6%)
5 Worst K Matchups
26. Chad Ryland vs. Lions (-33.7%)
27. Andres Borregales vs. Raiders (-36.0%)
28. Trey Smack vs. Bears (-42.0%)
29. Cairo Santos and Packers (-44.8%)
30. Drew Stevens vs. Giants (-55.9%)